Market Trends Report

Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Trend Report: August 2017

Santa Clara County (SCC): And The Beat Goes On

Although off the highs reached recently, prices for single-family homes and condominiums continue to post year-over-year gains.

The median price for single-family, re-sale homes was up by double-digits for the second month in a row, gaining 13.1% in July compared to last July.

The median price for condos/lofts posted a 14.0% gain.

The sales price to list price ratio continues to point to a very strong sellers’ market. The ratio for homes was 105.5%, while the ratio of condos/lofts was 105.8%.

 A Fix for the Housing Shortage

As the tech industry continues to expand, demand is soaring.

Most solutions to the housing problems in the Bay Area advocate building new units. While that is certainly desirable, it is also being fought against vigorously.

A blogger by the name of David Thielen posted a novel solution in the Huffington Post titled, “Saving San Francisco—A Solution to the Housing Crisis. While he focuses on San Francisco, his points are relevant to the South Bay also.

In brief, he points to the large number of well-paying tech jobs as the driver for increasing prices. “The root problem is more jobs than the housing can support.”

He looks at the two choices currently facing San Francisco: disallow any expansion of housing, which will dramatically increase prices, or, build, baby, build, to misquote Al Davis.

That, Mr. Thielen says, will result in a city of high-rises, turning it into deep canyons and congested streets.

His solution? Have the tech companies move jobs to other cities. He points to Detroit as a city that would be very welcoming to an influx of well-paid jobs.

You can read his article here: http://tinyurl.com/ycz5frjv

July 2017 Sales Statistics

* Total inventory is active listings plus pending     listings. Active listings do not include pending.

More information is available in our on-line report at http://avi.rereport.com/market_reports

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Rates Drift Lower Again (SCC & SMC)

Jul. 28, 2017 — As we expected, mortgage rates drifted a little lower this week, edging a touch closer to 2017 lows. In reality, mortgage rates have been wandering about for several months, with the average conforming 30-year fixed rate ebbing and flowing in a range of just 17 basis points since late April.

The middle of the summer usually sees little movement in rates, unless there is some highly unusual event that jars the market. This kind of calm doesn’t usually last forever, and odds favor a quickening of financial market activity that usually begins after Labor Day. Until then, only small moves seem likely.

The economic news continues to be fair, but hardly the stuff on which sizable moves in interest rates are based. The Federal Reserve conducted a two-day meeting this week which ended with no change to the federal funds rate, but the Fed did acknowledge the recent fade in price pressures and tweaked the language used to describe inflation in June from a characterization of “running somewhat below 2%” to July’s more explicit “prices… are running below 2%.”

Low mortgage rates have done their part to drive demand for housing this spring. That said, sales of existing homes have been largely curtailed by a lack of affordable and desirable supply, and this continues to be the case. Sales of existing homes declined by 1.8% in June when compared to May, easing to a 5.52 million (annualized) rate of sale. Homes that sold carried a median price tag 6.5% above the same measure a year ago, and affordability continues to be crimped as we go along. Inventories of unsold homes have edged up in the last three months and now stand a 4.3 months of supply, the highest since last October, but still remaining well below the 6 months which is considered healthy. The National Association of Realtors noted “June’s inventory figures are down 0.5% from last month to 1.96 million homes for sale. Inventories are down 7.1% from a year ago which is 25 months of year over year declines”.

The economy continues to rumble along, and now sports a fair 1.8% run rate for the first six months of the year. Home sales are encouraged by low mortgage rates and a continued solid job market, but are throttled by a lack of homes to buy. Homeowners and stock investors continue to see solid gains in their holdings, and in theory this should help to continue to power the economy along. Inflation remains more of a hoped-for situation than a reality, much less a problem. Overall, things seem OK, and the protracted process of filling in all the holes created in the Great Recession seems to be proceeding apace.

Call or email me if you have any questions.

For further details and a city-by-city breakdown statistics, go to http://avi.rereport.com/market_reports.

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Real estate related Articles

TECH INSIDER
July 28. 2017
Google has reportedly spent $820 million on properties in Silicon Valley. By Edoardo Maggio
The Santa Clara Weekly
July. 2017 2017
LeEco Sells Former Yahoo Parcel to Chinese Real Estate Development Company. By Carolyn Schuk
Michael RepkaReal Estate Matters. Representing both buyers and sellers: A conflict of interest? Read more Dual Agency
Avi UrbanHow to reduce your home loan interest payments. Read more

Helpful resource for home owners

Many new home owners or owners who consider remodeling or rebuilding their homes should take advantage of their county Tax Assessor web site. These web site and their respective city building departments web site typically have vest information regarding the process for applying for permits, the impact on their taxes and many other resources that home owners should be aware are available for them.
For the San Mateo County Tax Assessor office visit http://www.smcare.org/default.asp
For Santa Clara County Tax Assessor visit https://www.sccassessor.org/index.php

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The Silicon Valley 150 Index Corner

The Silicon Valley’s Real estate market is a derivative of the local economy–it prospers and withers depending on how well the local innovation-based sector performs. The San Jose Mercury News tracks the performances of the largest 150 publicly traded companies headquartered in Silicon Valley through an index called the SV150, which may be found at www.mercurynews.com. Stocks are valued based on several criteria, but one of the more important criteria is a company’s future earnings. Therefore, I see the SV150 as a leading indicator for Silicon Valley’s real estate market.

Investors Corner

THE S&P CORELOGIC CASE-SHILLER NATIONAL HOME PRICE NSA INDEX SETS ALL TIME HIGH FOR SIXTH CONSECUTIVE MONTH

NEW YORK, July 25, 2017 – S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for May 2017 shows that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months. More than 27 years of history for these data series is available, and can be accessed in full by going to http://bit.ly/2vF4Z1y

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San Mateo County (SMC): And the Beat Goes On

Although off the highs reached recently, prices for single-family homes and condominiums continue to post year-over-year gains.

The median price for single-family, re-sale homes was up by double-digits, gaining 10.3% in July compared to last July.

The median price for condos/lofts posted a 2.5% gain.

The sales price to list price ratio continues to point to a very strong sellers’ market. The ratio for homes was 108.7%, while the ratio of condos was 104.0%.

A Fix for the Housing Shortage

As the tech industry continues to expand, demand is soaring.

Most solutions to the housing problems in the Bay Area advocate building new units. While that is certainly desirable, it is also being fought against vigorously.

A blogger by the name of David Thielen posted a novel solution in the Huffington Post titled, “Saving San Francisco—A Solution to the Housing Crisis. While he focuses on San Francisco, his points are relevant to the South Bay also.

In brief, he points to the large number of well-paying tech jobs as the driver for increasing prices. “The root problem is more jobs than the housing can support.”

He looks at the two choices currently facing San Francisco: disallow any expansion of housing, which will dramatically increase prices, or, build, baby, build, to misquote Al Davis.

That, Mr. Thielen says, will result in a city of high-rises, turning it into deep canyons and congested streets.

His solution? Have the tech companies move jobs to other cities. He points to Detroit as a city that would be very welcoming to an influx of well-paid jobs.

You can read his article here: http://tinyurl.com/ycz5frjv

July 2017 Sales Statistics

* Total inventory is active listings plus pending listings. Active listings do not include pending.

You can get more information at: http://avi.rereport.com/market_reports

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Call or email me if you have any questions.

For further details and a city-by-city breakdown statistics, go to http://avi.rereport.com/market_reports.

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Looking to Downsize?

Keep Your Property Tax Base

Under Proposition 60, California homeowners 55 and older get a one-time chance to sell their primary residence and transfer its property-tax assessment to a new one, but the market value of the new home generally must be equal to or less than the market value of the old home.

Prop. 60 was designed to help longtime California homeowners who want to downsize but don’t want to give up the low property-tax assessment they enjoy in their existing home.

Under Proposition 13, homes are reassessed for property-tax purposes when there is a change in ownership or new construction. In between ownership changes, the assessed value can go up by an inflation rate not to exceed 2% a year. (Homeowners can get temporary reductions when property values go down.)

Prop. 60 lets homeowners 55 or older transfer their base-year value from an existing primary residence to a new primary residence, but there are restrictions.

The new home must be in the same county as the old one or, as Proposition 90 added, in one of eleven counties that accept transfers of base-year value from other counties. The eleven counties are: Alameda, El Dorado, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Tuolumne and Ventura.

Also, the new home must be purchased or built within two years – before or after – the sale of the original property.

If the new house is purchased before the old house is sold, the market value of the new house on its purchase date cannot exceed 100% of the old home’s market value on the date it is sold.

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