Market Trends Report

The Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Trend Report: January 2021

In this issue

Santa Clara County (SCC): Home Sales Continue to Rise

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes were up 29.7% year-over-year in December. There were 860 homes sold in Santa Clara County last month. The monthly average since 2000 is 987.

Home sales were up 0.5% for the year. That is the first time home sales were higher than the year before since 2015.

The average sales price for single-family, re-sale homes was up 13.5% year-over-year.

The median sales price for single-family, re-sale homes rose 12.3% compared to last year. That’s the fourteenth month in a row the median sales price has been higher than the year before.

The sales price to list price ratio went from 103.6% to 103.7%.

Pending sales were up 75.6% year-over-year.

Inventory of single-family, re-sale homes was down 7.4% compared to last year. That is the sixteenth month in a row inventory has been lower than the year before. As of January 5th, there were 427 homes for sale in Santa Clara County. The average since January 2000 is 2,703.

Days of Inventory, or how long it would take to sell all homes listed for sale at the current rate of sales, fell five days to 15 days compared to November. The average since 2003 is 89.

It took only twenty days to sell a home last month. That is the time from when a home is listed for sale to when it goes into contract.

The median sales price for condos was up 7.8% from last December. The average sales price gained 5.9% year-over-year.

Condo sales were up 30.1% year-over-year. There were 350 condos sold in December.

For the year, condo sales were down 2.2%.

The sales price to list price ratio from 100.8% to 100.5%.

Condo inventory rose 39.5% compared to last December.

As of January 5th, there were 378 condos for sale in Santa Clara County. The average since January 2000 is 757.

Days of inventory fell to thirty-two from forty.

It took an average of thirty days to sell a condo last month.

If you are planning on selling your property, call me for a free comparative market analysis

December 2020 Sales Statistics (SCC)

* Total inventory is active listings plus pending     listings. Active listings do not include pending.

More information is available in our on-line report at https://avi.rereport.com/market_reports

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Want straight answers to your real estate questions?
Call 650-305-1111 or send me a note to schedule a complementary & confidential one-on-one meeting.

VISIT https://avi.rereport.com/ for a free on-line market analysis of your property.
You can also perform your own personal search of properties for sale.

Turning The Page (SCC & SMC)

December 31, 2020 — A year ago, when the calendar first turned to 2020, it’s a fair bet that no one could see what was coming, or know how profoundly one little germ could change our lives. The coronavirus outbreak, epidemic and then pandemic upended everything across the globe, and even as we strive for a semblance of normalcy, it’s not done yet just yet. You’ll be able to witness the latest effects this evening, as normally-packed live celebrations of the change of year in cities around the world will be thinner, remotely generated and socially-distanced. “On January 1, 2021, for the first time every, hindsight will actually be 2020”, according to a popular internet meme, and there’s little doubt that many people will be happy to see it go.

With one country after another closing, and uncertainty and risks skyrocketing, investors got spooked and came to a point of selling everything to move to cash; interest rates spiked, financial markets became unhinged and central banks across the world moved into emergency positions, slashing rates, buying bonds and opening up new lending and market-support facilities, moving to liquefy every market and be the buyer of last resort for a range of assets if need be. The market panic was quelled, and a depression likely averted. Lockdowns ensured that the economies of many countries would fall into record-setting recession for a time, only to quickly (if partially) emerge.

As they did, unprecedented opportunities arose for homeowners. For those in difficult straits, and with the experience of at least some lessons learned in the last housing bust, a nearly instant forbearance program for homeowners was released, and without even the burden of proof of hardship. Millions signed up; a core of the most troubled homeowners (numbering about 2.8 million) yet remain in forbearance. For others who experienced no payment troubles, opportunities to refinance at record low rates — multiple times — appeared. Freddie Mac’s formal all-time low for a conforming 30-year (3.31%) FRM was touched in mid-April, broken by the end of the of the month a new record low was set in 17 weeks since then, falling to as low 2.66% near the end of the year.

Potential homebuyers took notice, too. The year began with an early start on the spring homebuying season with a solid winter showing for sales, but that came to a relative standstill in March through May, only to revive with vigor and then some as the economy re-opened through the summer. The delayed action of the spring market was joined by additional demand from second home buyers looking to escape to remote locations, away from virus and strife, and by buyers who could now work remotely and so no longer felt constricted by proximity to center-city workspaces. With competition for houses fierce and existing home prices rising sharply, it’s also likely that some demand has been “advanced” from the coming year in order to grab a home before costs increased further.

With the existing home market tight and expensive, and possibly with commuting to work far less of a concern, sales of new homes also enjoyed a strong period during the mid-part of 2020, but sales are settling back to a very solid (if less frenetic) trend as the year turns. Before a pandemic dip last spring, sales of new homes had been in a 10-year uptrend, and seem poised to return to that kind of steady, solid (if unspectacular) improvement now that the pandemic distortion in sales has cycled through.

Existing home sales have started to cool a bit from heady annualized levels too, although that’s to be expected as the winter months kick in. The spring-bumped-into-summer housing season has passed, and while there is still plenty of demand there is little supply to be had, and even fewer homes are put up for sale once the onset of the extended holiday (and then winter) season begins. The National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index contracted again in November, declining by 2.6%, a third consecutive decline. Compared to a year ago, though, contract signings are still some 16.4% higher, and if we weigh this change against sales levels last December/January, it looks like this will translate into a 6.25 million (or so) annualized rate of sale. October’s 6.86 million (annual) was the recent peak, and sales are likely to continue to cool somewhat until the next spring cycle kicks up again.

For further details and a city-by-city breakdown statistics, go to https://avi.rereport.com/market_reports.

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Send me a note with subject “Real Estate Investment Alerts .”

For a focused review of current and historical market trends go to https://avi.rereport.com/market_reports and click “change’’ see below

 

Real Estate Related Articles

Realtor Magazin
January 4, 2021

Exodus to the Suburbs Appears to Be Reversing

By NAR

YouTube
December 29, 2020

Predictions 2021 with Scott Galloway | Section4

 

Realtor Magazin
October 22, 2020

Fall Home Sales Surge Ahead of Normal Patterns

By NAR

WOLF STREET
October 8, 2020

The Big Boys Are Back: Financializing Single-Family Houses

By Wolf Richter


California homeowners interested in building accessory dwelling units
on their property just caught a break, potentially shaving off thousands of dollars in fees and permits.
In a move proponents say will help ease the Bay Area’s housing crisis, Gov. Jerry Brown on Tuesday signed Senate Bill 1069, making the so-called “granny units” easier and less expensive to build throughout the state.

For more read California eases restrictions on ‘granny units’
and www.hcd.ca.gov/policy-research/AccessoryDwellingUnits.shtml

Helpful resource for home owners

Many new home owners or owners who consider remodeling or rebuilding their homes should take advantage of their county Tax Assessor web site. These web site and their respective city building departments web site typically have vest information regarding the process for applying for permits, the impact on their taxes and many other resources that home owners should be aware are available for them.
For the San Mateo County Tax Assessor office visit https://www.smcare.org/default.asp
For Santa Clara County Tax Assessor visit https://www.sccassessor.org/index.php

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The Silicon Valley 150 Index Corner

The Silicon Valley’s Real estate market is a derivative of the local economy–it prospers and withers depending on how well the local innovation-based sector performs. The San Jose Mercury News tracks the performances of the largest 150 publicly traded companies headquartered in Silicon Valley through an index called the SV150, which may be found at www.mercurynews.com. Stocks are valued based on several criteria, but one of the more important criteria is a company’s future earnings. Therefore, I see the SV150 as a leading indicator for Silicon Valley’s real estate market.

Investors Corner

S&P CORELOGIC CASE-SHILLER INDEX SHOWS ANNUAL HOME PRICE GAINS REMAINED STRONG IN OCTOBER

NEW YORK, DECEMBER 29, 2020 – S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for October 2020 show that home prices continue to increase across the U.S. More than 27 years of history are available for these data series, and can be accessed in full by going to click here

U.S. Housing Markets Moving Into Rent Territory for First Time in Over 8 Years: Report

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San Mateo County (SMC): Home Sales & Prices Continue to Rise

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes in San Mateo County were up for the fifth month in a row, year-over-year, in November. They rose 28.2% year-over-year. There were 400 homes sold in San Mateo County last month. The average since 2000 is 398.

Year-to-date, home sales are down 2.3%.

Although continuing to back off the high set in August, the median sales price for single-family, re-sale homes was up, year-over-year, by 5%.

The average price also backed off the high set in August. It was up 9.1% year-over-year.

Inventory of single-family, re-sale homes was up 0.7% compared to last year. As of December 5th, there were 423 homes for sale in San Mateo County. The average since January 2000 is 1,287.

The sales price to list price ratio fell to 102.7% from 103.4%.

Days of Inventory, or the amount of time it would take to sell all homes for sale divided by how many homes have sold, dropped three days to thirty-one days.

It took twenty-five days, on average, to sell a home last month. That is the time from when a home is listed to when it goes into contract.

The median sales price for re-sale condos rose 2.2% year-over-year. It was down 0.5% from October. The average sales price fell 6.9% from October. Year-over-year, the average sales price fell 3.3%.

Condo sales were up 17.6% year-over-year. Condo sales were down 3.8% from October.

Inventory rose 62.6% year-over-year. It was down 14.3% compared to October.

As of December 5th, there were 252 condos for sale in San Mateo County. The average since January 2003 is 350.

Days of inventory fell to fifty-eight from sixty-seven.

It took an average of thirty-one days to sell a condo last month.

If you are planning on selling your property, call me for a free comparative market analysis.

November  2020 Sales Statistics

* Total inventory is active listings plus pending listings. Active listings do not include pending.

You can get more information at: https://avi.rereport.com/market_reports

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Call or email me if you have any questions.

For further details and a city-by-city breakdown statistics, go to

https://avi.rereport.com/market_reports.

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Looking to Downsize?

Keep Your Property Tax Base

Under Proposition 60, California homeowners 55 and older get a one-time chance to sell their primary residence and transfer its property-tax assessment to a new one, but the market value of the new home generally must be equal to or less than the market value of the old home.

Prop. 60 was designed to help longtime California homeowners who want to downsize but don’t want to give up the low property-tax assessment they enjoy in their existing home.

Under Proposition 13, homes are reassessed for property-tax purposes when there is a change in ownership or new construction. In between ownership changes, the assessed value can go up by an inflation rate not to exceed 2% a year. (Homeowners can get temporary reductions when property values go down.)

Prop. 60 lets homeowners 55 or older transfer their base-year value from an existing primary residence to a new primary residence, but there are restrictions.

The new home must be in the same county as the old one or, as Proposition 90 added, in one of eleven counties that accept transfers of base-year value from other counties. The eleven counties are: Alameda, El Dorado, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Tuolumne and Ventura.

Also, the new home must be purchased or built within two years – before or after – the sale of the original property.

If the new house is purchased before the old house is sold, the market value of the new house on its purchase date cannot exceed 100% of the old home’s market value on the date it is sold.

Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Trend Report

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